We all know that betting is popular all over the world, and even this year, when most of the industries are facing and dealing with losses, the betting industry has increased its growth and is making more money. Of course, when we talk about betting, each of us has some sport that we think we know the best, but when we try to apply that knowledge and make some cash from betting at those sports and games, that money somehow always slips away.
Today, when it is possible to bet on all the sports and all possible events in one game, it is pretty challenging to make the right choice. Even when there are so many analyzes and “verified” sites that offer free tips and guidance, that choice is even more difficult. But one sport certainly stands out for its complexity, and that is the NFL.
So many things happen during one game, and so many things need our close attention that even when we are watching and analyzing some game, with all available options (rewinding, slow motion, etc.), there will always be something important that the untrained eye will miss. That is why we will now try to understand how difficult it is to actually analyze and bet on NFL games.
The NFL is the No. 1 sport in the USA, and in the past few years, it has become more and more popular throughout Europe. During one season, several games are played in Europe, and those games are extremely popular, so now we have a real global craze for the NFL. All of this, of course, has a high effect on betting, and today, there is also tremendous growth in wagering on NFL games around the world. Although there are plenty of websites, blogs, podcasts, etc., that can help you with choosing the right event to bet on, NFL games are so amazing and unpredictable that things can change in just a few seconds, making it pretty hard to predict almost anything.
The thing that certainly doesn’t make all this easier is the fact that there are only 256 games during one season, which is very little compared to MLB (2.430) or NBA (1.230), and this is significant because of many reasons.
- More games mean that you will get more info on what to expect, and you can get a better sample size to avoid variances.
- Although there is a lot of information regarding NFL players, rosters, games, stats, most of them are via social networks, and we can put them in a rumor basket.
- There is so much money that people invest (bet) on these games that even the line moves are not that clear.
But it’s not all just bad news, and, of course, there are certain advantages of betting on the NFL.
Something that is very important to keep in mind when betting on the NFL is something called Key Numbers, or basic numbers. These are the margins of victories that are most likely to happen and did happen in the NFL. Everyone definitely saw those margins – 3, 7, or 10 points, and if we take a look at the last 20+ seasons, more than a third of all games ended with one of these three margins.
All this is important because knowing this can actually help to understand the odds and margins better and bet on the right event or score. By doing so, one can increase its odds and make some money while enjoying Sunday afternoon, watching football.
Another advantage is knowing that home-field advantage is highly significant. We all heard about that, but in practice (when trying to earn some quick cash), most people ignore this, and that is wrong. Traditionally, that home-field advantage is around 3 points, which means that when you notice that a home team has a slight advantage, it is because of this fact. When you see a team playing at home with a spread of -3 points on the list, it means that the bookmakers consider the opponents to be equal to each other, but they give one team an advantage just because they play at home.
Favorites, everybody knows and is familiar with the best players and the best teams, but sometimes, the results and even some statistics can leave a wrong impression. It all depends on how some game develops. It means that one team may look amazing at the defensive end just because a game before, they were in the lead, and the opponent was trying to even the score by choosing to go with a pass rather than running. That is why before placing any bet, it is crucial to do proper research and find the right stats and info because sometimes even the power rankings can misguide you. But this doesn’t change the fact that many people are still mostly betting on favorites. And that leaves a great opportunity for those who have both the nerves and money to bet on underdogs.
The other thing to consider is when one team suffers a tough loss in the previous week. Here is also where data has a huge role, and if we take a look at the last 10+ seasons, the thing we can notice is that teams that suffered a loss of 14 or more points have a 54% success rate in beating spread expectations in the next away game. It is a simple reaction to a poor result and performance and something that should not be overlooked.
As for the analysis itself, a lot is going on, and the fact that there are three teams (offense, defense, and special teams) on each roster speaks volumes about the complexity of the statistics. There is no perfect team, and a team without any flaw and the line movements vary from one time to another, and because it is so complex, many people choose to bet on teams’ season win totals. This is an excellent way to avoid all unexpected things that could happen but still leaves some uncertainties because, unfortunately, since it is a highly physical sport, there are also a lot of injuries in a single season.
In the end, due to the limited number of games in one season, analyzing or/and betting on football games can be challenging. But it is a challenge that those who are true football lovers will gladly take on. More info on how or on what to bet, you can find on the gambleindiana site, where one can also get some great advice and tips.